Michael Bloomberg has a solid chance to be elected President in 2008 if he decides to run as an Independent mainly because of three things:
1. His net worth, which ranges from anywhere between $3 billion to $20 billion dollars--Bloomberg, one of America's richest men, could literally carpet bomb the nation's airwaves with advertising. The above article suggests he would be prepared to spend an astonishing $500 million dollars of his personal wealth on a campaign. That is an incredible, never seen before amount and would enable even a martian to become a credible presidential candidate. To give you an idea, it is about five times the amount that George W. Bush and John Kerry spent combined in the 2004 election.
2. He has proven to be an incredibly capable mayor of the nation's largest city--Over the past 5 years, crime has been way down on Bloomberg's watch and New York is the nation's safest big city. He has additionally balanced the city budget, and unemployment has never been lower. His approval rating, as the article indicates, hovers around an incredible 70%
3. Americans are becoming increasingly disgusted with the two major parties--There's no question about there being room for an Independent candidate to make headway in the upcoming election, as poll after poll shows that Americans crave more than two choices. Witness the success of Bloomberg friend Joe Lieberman in Connecticut this past election cycle along with other buddy California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Even a loon like Ross Perot wound up with nearly 20% of the popular vote in 1992, and Michael Bloomberg is no Ross Perot.
Michael Bloomberg is a serious, calculating, extremely successful winner. He has stated that the only thing holding him from running is his doubt that America will elect a 5'7 inch divorced Jew as President. If he does make the determination that he can overcome that, and decides to run, it's hard not to put your money on him. The guy has come out on top with nearly everything he has put his mind to. And he's got $500 million to spend.
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11 comments:
There is definitely an opening for an independent candidate in '08, given the disgust with both major parties right now.
It would make for a very interesting election year, to say the least.
You make a very compelling argument, and I think that two candidates could garner a lot of votes as independents: Bloomberg and John McCain. Obviously, Republicans would be stupid to not run McCain if he wanted to declare his candidacy, but it would not be an unlikely scenario if the GOP ran a more socially conservative candidate.
Whether being an independent is actually a third party is debatable. No doubt, McCain as an independent would be more like electing a libertarian, which is certainly a third party. I am not too learned on Bloomberg's actual political leanings, so I cannot make judgments on him.
When you brought up the Lieberman example, however, I think you misrepresented his candidacy as an independent. He only ran as an independent because he could not grab the Democratic nomination, but he will undoubtedly act as a Democrat. That is the one flaw in your point.
Either way, yes, with the tremendous influence campaign spending has on the generally uneducated voting American public, Bloomberg is a capable candidate. Whether crime rates going down in New York is directly related to his policies, I don't know. But what I do know is that if someone plugs enough money into a campaign, they at least have a shot--provided they are not a complete fool, such as Ross Perot.
Great post and I thank you for reminding me through the comment on my blog that Mayor Bloomberg also represents a strong possible candidate. I linked to your post from mine at http://darbydarnit.blogspot.com.
Cheers.
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It still discourages me that the US doesn't see Hillary as a viable candidate, especially with thoughts of McCain running, I'm not a supporter...
As far as Bloomberg, yes, he's a strong possible candidate but I haven't seen how he weighs in on some of the more serious issues on my mind to say whether or not I could support him.
In my opinion, this is going to have to be a huge transitional election for our country...
If Bloomberg, a pro-choice, pro-gays, anti-guns east coast liberal, ran for president the only thing he would ensure is a Republican landslide victory. He could probably take 10-20 % of the national vote and the large majority of those votes would by leftleaning votes who othervise would vote for the democratic candidate.
I appreciate the comment you left on my site and I enjoyed reading your analysis. I must confess I hadn't considered Bloomberg as an indipendent candidate; until now it's been as a GOP nominee, where his chances have been somewhere between slim and none (with the odds closer to the latter). As an independent, though, he would certainly have a better shot at the White House, to say nothing of maing an impact on the race.
That being said, I have to agree with garby's comment that an independent Bloomberg candidacy would only ensure a Republian victory in 2008. In addition to the reasons he outlines, there is the fact that he is the mayor of New York -- a detail that would elicit a Pavlovian reaction in the conservaitive states in which he would need traction in order to win. Bloomberg may not be incapable of overcoming this obstacle, but the odds would certainly be long.
I've always been impressed with Bloomberg, but when I think of him running for president I'm reminded of Ross Perot's bids for the White House.
While Bloomberg has political experience, I don't think he has the political mindset. He's been successful as the anti-politician in New York -- it's the only way to win there with an "R" next to your name, isn't it? But running for president is the ultimate political gig. I think he'd be inclined to get fed up with the whole thing, much like Perot. Money doesn't matter if you're sick and tired of the whole thing by July.
I think you are completely wrong about Bloomberg '08 candidacy. Yes, Michael Bloomberg was smart enough leaving the Democratic Party and running as a Republican under the coattails Rudy Giuliani after 9/11 for NYC mayor. Yes, he definitely will have enough money to make a run for the Presidency. But, those two things does not make him the supposed savior of the country which rid us from the evils of the two party system.
Michael Bloomberg is a corporate centrists who fully supported the failed foreign policy of President Bush, which is not very unique. Basically, if Bloomberg run he will follow Joe Lieberman lead and runs as a independent DLC Democrat who preaches againist evil partisan on the left and right while continuing support neoconservatives foreign policy and Big Business.
The country is not yearning for more the same, Michael Bloomberg is no alternative.
I disagree with his chances, Steve Forbes ran a few years back with much the same credentials as Bloomberg, Bloomberg has the mayor of New York thing going for him but why vote for him when Rudy Giuliani is out there.
We’re not ready for a third party movement at the presidency level, it would be smarter from him to run for Senate against Hillary since her chances of winning the presidency are not much better than his.
From there he could launch an independent movement of fiscal conservatives or a libertarian movement. I believe the public is more susceptible and eager from some libertarian ideas than any other political group.
yeahpolitics.blogspot.com
If Bloomberg, a pro-choice, pro-gays, anti-guns east coast liberal runs for president, he will fracture the Republican vote and ensure a Democratic victory. The extreme right of the party would be forced to field their own candidate.
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