ARTICLE HAS BEEN UPDATED, PLEASE CLICK HERE!!!It's time to start sifting through the ashes of a soon to be devastated national Republican party.
CLICK HERE FOR ALL MINOR-RIPPER COVERAGE OF THE GOP IN 2012...
And what better way to do that than to fast forward through Tuesday's annihilation, which will bring the party perilously close to extinction, and to the Republican party's 2012 presidential campaign.
Here's my take on who, in order, the top 5 prospects to win the Republican nomination in four years time are:
Now, on the cusp of a smashing Obama victory and the dawn of a new progressive era in American government I can only wonder in astonishment at how vastly things can change in four short years.
Indeed the future is a glimmer of light that Republicans should hold on to in what promises to be a very bleak next several months.
And what better way to do that than to fast forward through Tuesday's annihilation, which will bring the party perilously close to extinction, and to the Republican party's 2012 presidential campaign.
Here's my take on who, in order, the top 5 prospects to win the Republican nomination in four years time are:
- Mitt Romney: Somewhat akin to the 1976 Republican nomination fight where an aging, tired Gerald Ford narrowly fended off what turned out to be the future of the party in California governor Ronald Reagan--who became the Godfather of the modern conservative movement--many Republicans today have McCain buyer's remorse and realize they should have nominated Romney. Ford went on to lose to Carter in 1976, just as McCain will lose to Obama in a few days. Romney has the benefit of being filthy rich, handsome, and young. Moreover, he's competent, and he is far and away the Republican front runner as it stands today for 2012. Romney's so smart that he probably smelled a loser from a mile away in McCain and should be thankful he didn't wind up on the present ticket. Did he make it clear to McCain that he didn't want the slot?? Maybe.
- Jeb Bush: Yes, as astonishing and surreal as it might seem, America stands a decent chance of electing another Bush as its president, either in 2012 or 2016. He's widely known as having a vastly higher IQ than his elder brother (but then again so does your average zoo animal), but the ex-two time governor of Florida will no doubt suffer major consequences of 'Bush fatigue' among the populace--I mean if Americans elect another Bush, the country truly is a glutton for punishment. Stranger things have happened, though, and the guy is loved by the right...
- Mike Huckabee: Huckabee provided a rare burst of fresh air when he appeared on the scene in this cycle's Republican nomination fight. Telegenic, compassionate, possessing a great sense of humour and having executive experience, Huckabee no doubt harbors additional presidential ambitions. Like James Carville once said, "Running for president is like having sex, most men can't do it only once...."
- Charlie Crist/Tim Pawlenty/Mark Sanford: These are the current governors respectively of the states of Florida, Minnesota, and South Carolina and what they have in common is that John McCain should have picked any of these guys as his running mate instead of the laughably inept Sarah Palin (see below). Crist, in particular, represents a new breed type of Republican (like Arnold Schwarzenegger who can't run for president because he wasn't born in America): pro-environment, moderate both fiscally and socially, pro-immigrant and non-ideological. The future of the party lies in that type of profile--not the Sean Hannity/Tom Delay/Rush Limbaugh know-nothing, hard right, divisive types who drove the party into the present ditch that it finds itself in...
- Sarah Palin: Yes, that's right, that's not a typo, Sarah Palin. She's made it clear that she harbors higher ambitions, and amazingly she has a base of support. All I can say is that she makes George W. Bush seem well read and almost Albert Einstein like in comparison. And that says something....
Now, on the cusp of a smashing Obama victory and the dawn of a new progressive era in American government I can only wonder in astonishment at how vastly things can change in four short years.
Indeed the future is a glimmer of light that Republicans should hold on to in what promises to be a very bleak next several months.
Posts
34 comments:
You contradict yourself my friend. You say Mitt Romney is #1 but then a few short paragraphs later, say that "The future of the party lies in that type of profile--not the Sean Hannity/Tom Delay/Rush Limbaugh know-nothing, hard right, divisive types who drove the party into the present ditch that it finds itself in..." which is exactly what Romney tries to be. That is why Hannity and Rush pushed him on us so hard during the primaries, he was just like them. Only problem was Romney's real record of being the most Liberal Governor ever, and that includes Democrats.
Joseph,
Thanks for your comment and its true Romney was pushed by the 'old' guard this time around, but I have no doubt in his political, chameleon like talents. Remember he pulled off going from pro choice to pro life successfully...I think the guy's a moderate at heart, and the devastation that will ensue in the Republican party will enable him to go back to the left of the party--where he belongs and where the future lies.
Rip: I think it may be prudent to focus on 2016 for your republican readership. Here is the issue, Obama is going to take office in the worst economy since the Great Depression. I'm talking a Panic of 1907 type economy. The dems are going to enact the New New Deal in 2009 and although the economy will be awful for the first two years of the Obama administration things will inevitably be better in by 2011-2012. This will hand the re-election to Obama on the grounds of the simple argument: "remember how bad things were four year ago?" "are you better off" sort of thing. Swing voters vote this way. Short of a white house hooker scandal or running a crack ring from the oval office, Obama has re-election handed over. We get him for 8 years till 2016 in my view. It is then, the republicans will have a chance.....and Biden will be too old so we'll have to think who the up and coming democrats in 2016 will be....in fact that could be a great op-ed post for you which this reader would love to see!
V_08--I tend to agree with you and believe your prognostication is spot on. However, the Repubs will have a nominee in 2012, even if that guy stands to get demolished by Obama. And as we know a lot can happen in 4 years, too. What if Obama's presidency sucks, is ridden with corruption, etc.? What if a terrorist attack happens again? Dirty bomb, anyone? I hear you about 2016, but there's 2012 first. What I find certain is that the Republican party will be a very different animal than what we see the vestiges of today: a hard right, religiously intolerant, xenophobic, party of rich white people. McCain had a chance if he just was himself, but instead he tried to morph into Rush Limbaugh's candidate of choice. Bad decision, you lose.
I am a little more non-challant about 2012. If Obama gives it away by doing something stunningly wrong then of course, but it doesn't appear to be in his character. I think he's got 8 years. The 2012 republican will be a sacrificial lamb, similar to the way Bob Dole was for the republicans, and it's really about 2016 unless Obama gives it away.
ripper , your site is very slow to load from various computers. check out your server. we wait for your updates and this is frustrating. we want to read the ripper.
Umm, why is no one seeing the obvious candidate simmering on the back burner. He is young & fresh, extremely articulate, brilliant smart, an Ivy League grad, an Oxford grad, a Rhodes scholar, a minority, not an old-guard insider from the aging republican core, religiously conservative, very secure in his stances (meaning his flip-flop risk is low), pro-life, beloved by the NRA, experience in both legislative and executive branches of government, cabinet experience, economically savvy, and the list goes on. How is he not on your (or anyone's list)?! He is Bobby Jindal, governor of Louisiana.
JustinP:
You are absolutely 100%, totally right, and that was a mistake on my party. He should be right there (or even above) fellow governors Pawlenty,Sanford, and Crist. I like Jindal--he seems to be really sharp. I promise a full on post on him later on. He needs to soften his stance on a few of those social issues, though, in my humble opinion.
I just stumbled upon your site in searching at some opinions on Republican leaders moving forward. I like your post.
If the GOP learns anything from this election, it should be that the right-wing, socially conservative paradigm is not the way forward. John McCain did as well as he did ONLY because he was not an establishment candidate--a maverick who even considered switching parties earlier this decade. If the Reps had nominated a Romney or a Huckabee--or even had one of these on the ticket--the election would have been a slaughter.
If the GOP nominates one of these guys or a similar candidate in 2012, it will be the Republican equivalent of the Dems' 1988 Dukakis bid.
Thanks David, I agree with you. If the Republicans wish to remain relevant they need to soften their image in a big way--especially with regards to things like Immigration: they are perilously close to being a Southern, white party. One that rarely, if ever, will win a presidential election again....
Hi, just stumbled across this page while doing a google search, enjoyed reading it. I was surprised not to see Bobby Jindal on your list as someone else noted above, I think he is the conservative version of Obama, very bright and quick on his feet, but better suited for 2016(he's only 37). I don't think Huckabee has any chance, he is too much of an evangelical preacher so his ceiling is not high enough. I think Palin has some potential since she has strong support in the base, but she would need an awful lot of polish. Romney is the obvious choice right now and he is very capable and has great credentials, but I think he'll have a problem catching on much like this year(he's no Reagan). I love Jindal but we could see someone emerge much like Gingrich did in 94'. In fact I think Newt is the most qualified person to run this country, I think he would love to be president but I don't think he really wants to run for it, too much baggage and he would be 69 in 2012. From what I read above people seem to have the impression that the Republicans need to get more moderate on abortion/same-sex marriage. This would be a disaster b/c social conservatives like myself do not compromise on abortion, we really do believe that a child is being killed, Jindal gets that. So if the GOP dropped the pro-life platform you would see a third party emerge that represents at least 35% of voters. I repeat, there is ZERO compromise on abortion. Let me know what you think.
Britt,
Thank you for your thoughtful, intelligent comment. I voted for Obama (REALLY didn't like W, but consider myself a moderate)and agree that Jindal certainly has a bright future in the Republican party. Indeed, your comment and the other reader's comment has inspired me to write a post on him very soon. I like what I see: namely he seems affable, non-ideological, and most importantly competent. You are not a Rhodes Scholar unless you have a top top notch intellect. It's sad about abortion, I just don't see how it can be a political issue. To me, it's incredibly private, personal choice. But I understand where people who differ with that are coming from....
You are fogetting a major major player: Bobby Jindal. He's a minority, insanely smart, a good politician, and very charasmatic. I think he's the GOP's best hope against the that Obama clown.
Bobby Jindal will be the 2012 GOP nominee if he wants it.
America needs Bobby Jindal.
For every Jimmy Carter, there is a Ronald Reagan.
For every Barack Obama, there is a Bobby Jindal.
The Republicans just got clobbered by Obama because America wanted "Change." Even though that doesn't mean anything specifically, America wanted something new, and that holds true of Republicans. A country is begging for something new, and this list offers them Romney, Bush, Huckabee, and Palin? Unbelievable. Republicans HAVE TO abandon this "next-in-line" mentality...
Another name we will be hearing more and more is Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. He's 38 and supposedly really smart. He was recruited by some in the GOP to challenge Boehner for the minority leader in the house but declined. Eric Cantor is another name. Bob Novak just did a peice about Newt Gingrich running in 2012. Here is a dream ticket-Gingrich/Jindal.
i think Bobby Jindal (R), Governor of Louisiana would be my choice for the Republican nomination in 2012. i think he should probably take Palin's spot on this list. just my 2 cents.
I'm a HUGE Mitch Daniels fan. He has really turned Indiana into a great state. Beyond that I think Jindhal woudl also be good...
I agree that Gov. Bobby Jindahl and Congressman Paul Ryan are rising young stars in the Republican Party. I would add congresswoman Marsha Blackburn to that list too. Among the older guard, I'm most impressed by Newt Gingrich, Jeb Bush and if she wanted to move from nonelected policymaker and academic to politician, Condoleeza Rice. Every one of the aforementioned is extremely smart, knowledgable and likable (although Newt Gringrich became a lightning rod to Dems because of his position as Speaker of the House during Clinton's second term). I like Huckabee best of all the potential candidates mentioned because of his personality, charm, good sense, compassion, policy positions and communication skills but I would like to see him demonstrate some more intellectual heft as the others I mentioned have.
I have came to believe a long time ago that we republicans have lost our way. Our ranks have been infiltrated by the NeoCons, whose literal definition means "converted liberals" and they have subverted our platform. I am in my early twenties, but I still remember the fondness for the old republican congress. How true conservatives shine amidst a sea of liberal insanity. The last of them is now Ron Paul, and it had hurt me greatly when our own party turned against Ron Paul for speaking of the very things that we once stood for.
May the wisdom of Reagon be forever venerated, and may be forever be ever vigilant against the crippling masses of the liberal influence.
My darkhorse pick: Sen John Thune of SD
V_08, "worst economy since the Great Depression"? How about worst economy since Jimmy Carter? Evidently you are too young to have lived through enough administrations to do anything other than parrot what you just heard your college government professor say in class last semester. True Obama inherited a struggling economy, but he's about to destroy it. Who will get the blame for that?
G.W. and the Party are blamed for everything Obama"inherited".....what
about the laissez-faire, er, preoccupation of the Clinton administration that preceded/allowed the access to the 9/11 attacks?
What about Democrat hopefuls for 2012? I'm predicting that Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia will be the Democrat nominee in 2012. Just like they primaried Carter with Kennedy in '80, they will primary Obama in '12 except that this time the incumbent will lose. What do you think?
I have always voted Republican, but if our 2012 nominee is Palin, I will not be able to support her. She has lost her credibility. She is not an eloquent speaker to say the least. That "you betcha" won't cut it in the White House.
Jindal is looking strong to me. He certainly comes across as well educated.
I will not vote for any those Republicans, No one can see what is being said all over the web. Most of them are in the CFR, and could care about the voters, I voted third party because Mc.cain was a joke. One of the biggest things that got me was how the GOP made a big joke out of Ron Paul, No my vote was not for him, but he had the balls to stand up and say what was right, Wake up GOP>
After Obama, we need an uber Conservative to undo all the harm Obama is doing. A moderate republican won't get it done. I have no doubt that the best man for the job is Newt Gingrich!
And there is no way a pro-choice republican would ever get nominated EVER! Guiliani had EVERYTHING going for him but the fact that he was pro-choice made him unelectable.
Romney Jendel 2012. Barrack is a joke and would be gone in 2010 if the cycle was 2 years. His inability to lead or make a decision is more evident every single day. Hillary will jump ship in 2010 and begine her bid for the nomination in wich she will nominate the little Constitutional carrying Leaperchan from Ohio just to try and luck up the state. But Romeny and Jendel will raise their hands in Febuary to the Square and be sworn in.
Are you an absolute dolt? It was the moderate nominal Republicans who got the party in the mess it is in. Granted, Hannity, Limbaugh and others are commentators, entertainers by Rush' own admission over the years. But the GOP, nor the country, needs a nominee who is a limp wrist like Crist. It needs another Reagan-like person. Your suggestion of Romney was actually pretty smart: he seems to have learned (even after some mistakes) what it means to be a Republican, especially on the national scene.
Hmmmmm, it appears to be that many people are attempting to cast a negative astigma against Palin. I am starting to believe that there truely is an underground campaign to destroy her because they know she is extremely capable and intellegent. She wasn't born with a silver spoon and will do a damn site better job managing this country than the sorry a-holes we have seen recently (including the socialist schmuck we have now). I hope people keep in mind that the negative comments made by people out there are probably liberal democrats disguising themselves as Republicans attempting to sully her name because they are extremely threatened by her conservative values. I think she is exactly what this country needs. She has more experience than the clown we have now, and she a hell of alot smarter. Don't underestimate her abilities and consider the source when reading negative comments about her.
Vice President Quyale should be added to the list.
I am pretty sure that Quyale is going to run.
Huckabee is "toast" after the clemency issue and Romney already performed poorly in the primaries
last time. I like Sarah but I don't think that she is going to run. Buchanan doesn't think that she is going to run and he is usually correct.
Former VPs historically have obtained the office in about a 50% rate. His odds are better than any other candidate except for Obama, if he runs for reelection.
I saw him (Quyale) recently and compared to the others, his pedigree roots directly back to Reagan. All of the 'potato" nonsense aside, Quyale can win Iowa and New Hampshire. Without saying, he will have the religious "right" with him an he has the financial wherewithal and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Quyale/ Bush ticket.
After four years of what we currently now have, this country will be ready for conservative leadership.
If Sarah does run and is the candidate, I will over zealously support her.
Anonymous,
Brilliant, thoughtful post. Your idea of Dan Quayle for 2012 has hit me like a thunder bolt, and I find myself scratching my head, wondering..."Why didn't I think of that?" Quayle's decision making is exactly what this country needs. Can you imagine how formidable a Palin/Quayle (or Quayle/Paylin, as it were) ticket would be? I sincerely hope Fred Thompson finds his way back to the center stage of GOP politics as well--
My reasoning for Quayle is very much like horse race handicapping. Former VPs have won the WH 50/50 since FDR. Truman, Johnson, Nixon & Bush. Gore lost by a "nose"..which actually adds weight to Quayle's odds. DQ bowed out in the 2000 primaries and endorsed Bush jr. The Bush's put a big paramount on loyalty. I am also imagining that Jeb will jump in latein the primaries sometime after NH after DQ upsets Romney in both Iowa (with Evangelicals) and "Live free or Die" NH. Quayle delivers the Religious right and "mad as hell" middle, while Jeb brings in the Rockefeller "middle" wing of the party. That type of ticket will have the financial backing it would need to be successful.
If Biden is off the ticket for the Dems, O will most likely take Sebelius- (Modale / Ferraro) vs (Reagen/ Bush) scenario.
DQ can pull this off...very underestimated former heavyweight contender.Over the years has been dismissed by the media and ridiculed. So was Nixon after JFK. Nixon, in his later years predicted a Quayle presidency. Say what you want about Nixon but it can't be denied that Nixon was a political warrior with great political foresight.
Even Clinton sought his counsel before his death in 94'.
Once again..I don't think Sarah is going to run...the odds are against her, and she may not have the infrastructure yet. Don't get me wrong..she is a household name, and people know about her but running for prez requires alot more than publicity tours. I see great things on the horizon for her.
Like Nixon used to say..."follow the money".
Post a Comment