A little over a year ago I wrote this post, on who at the time I thought were the top five contenders on the Republican side to take on Barack Obama in 2012. Needless to say, quite a bit has happened in the subsequent year (Mark Sanford, anyone?) and an update is long overdue:Game Change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin, and the Race of a Lifetime
For starters, what had been 5 has grown to 7--seemingly solid contenders a year ago like Florida governor Charlie Crist and Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal have fallen off the list altogether. Jeb Bush? We will have to take him at his word when he says America is suffering from "Bush Fatigue". So, without further ado...
Here's my take on who, in order, the top 7 prospects to win the Republican nomination in three years time are:
- Mitt Romney--Not much has changed from when I wrote this a year ago with regards to Romney in 2012:
Somewhat akin to the 1976 Republican nomination fight where an aging, tired Gerald Ford narrowly fended off what turned out to be the future of the party in California governor Ronald Reagan--who became the Godfather of the modern conservative movement--many Republicans today have McCain buyer's remorse and realize they should have nominated Romney. Ford went on to lose to Carter in 1976, just as McCain will lose to Obama in a few days. Romney has the benefit of being filthy rich, handsome, and young. Moreover, he's competent, and he is far and away the Republican front runner as it stands today for 2012. Romney's so smart that he probably smelled a loser from a mile away in McCain and should be thankful he didn't wind up on the present ticket. Did he make it clear to McCain that he didn't want the slot?? Maybe.
I will only add this: Romney is clearly still the wealthiest of the group, and the GOP doesn't traditionally eat its own--the powers that be in the party usually loyally go with the 'next guy in line' weather that be losers like Dole in '96 or McCain last time around. The next guy in line, clearly, in 2012 is Romney. - Mike Huckabee--In a sense former Arkansas governor and 2008 presidential candidate Mike Huckabee possesses many of the critical qualities that his chief rival for the nomination, Mitt Romney, does not: he's a Christian southerner (remember, Romney is a Morman) with Bill Clinton like retail politicking skills. Huckabee is at his best when he's deep in the middle of a crowd kissing every baby in sight. He's not wealthy, either, and has a populist, anti-elitist, anti Wall Street message that plays well to many in the GOP base these days. His problems? He's not the 'next in line', his campaign cash war chest will be dwarfed by Romney's, and it is a real stretch to see his appeal travelling very far from his Southern base. Can anyone really envision Republicans in New York or in California pulling the lever en masse for Mike Huckabee?
- Tim Pawlenty--The current governor of Minnesota is known for his moderate, pragmatic approach, but has been busy sprinting to the right these days to placate the wingnut, Rush Limbaugh/Glenn Beck loving base of the GOP. The ones who tend to actually turn out to vote on cold primary and caucus winter days. He's young, smart, and telegenic though and is the odds on favorite to be selected as Romney's eventual running mate--barring any blowups (aka 'Mark Sanfords'). The big question? Will Joe GOP Base Voter in Alabama or South Carolina trust a northerner like Pawlenty with his vote?
- John Thune--Every presidential nominating race has its' dark horse, and I have a feeling 2012's for the Republicans' will be John Thune--he's currently the GOP du jour among the chattering classes and is best known up to now for defeating then Senate Minority Leader Democrat Tom Daschle back in 2002 for the South Dakota Senate seat that he still occupies. Handome and having a reputation for being reasonably moderate, Thune in reality has a very small chance of winning the nomination this time around, but certainly will be a guy to watch and could wind up as the VP choice for the eventual nominee...
- Sarah Palin--Yes, believe it or not, the former Alaskan governor merits the #5 spot here if for nothing else than the fact that Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh love her. In other words the right wing of the right wing: religious conservatives who don't believe in evolution or abortion, and believe President Obama is a Muslim who was born in Indonesia...that's the demographic that supports governor Palin, and there are millions of them. As the famous boxing promoter Don King has famously said, "Only in America..." That about sums up the Sarah Palin phenomenon.
- Newt Gingrich--The fact that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich makes this list speaks volumes about the state of the modern Republican party. Arguably the most divisive political figure of the late 80's and 90's, Gingrich--almost unfathomably, comes off as a voice of reason, a kind of elder statesman in today's GOP. To say his candidacy for president would be a monumental long shot would be putting it kindly. Paris Hilton has a greater chance of being our next president...
- Ron Paul--Known for being the Libertarian who made waves in the GOP nominating contest last time around by garnering impressive grassroots support and loudly disagreeing with the party's foreign policy dogma, Paul seems poised for an encore run this time around. Paul appeals to disenchanted voters from both parties with a simple message: government is the root of all evil. Paul's message makes complete sense for people who look for simple answers to complex problems. Your tuna sandwich just got 50 cents more expensive at the local diner? It's the government's fault. No health insurance? It's the government's fault. Global warming? The answer is less government. He stands as much of a chance of getting elected president as Ralph Nader did back in 2000. Which is exactly why his candidacy frightens the hell out of the GOP hierarchy and why he cannot be ignored. We all know what impact Nader eventually had on that contest....
So there you have it: the only certain thing about this list when I revise it next year is that it once again be vastly different--especially in the lower slots. In November of 2005 Barack Obama was serving his first year in the Senate. Very, very few people thought he would win the Democratic nomination three years later and go on to become elected president.
But for now, the smart money remains on Romney. Just as that same money was on Hillary Clinton at this point in the cycle last time around.
WHO DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE 2012 GOP NOMINEE ? PLEASE VOTE IN THE ONLINE POLL AT THE TOP RIGHT OF THIS PAGE!!!
19 comments:
I just want to add one thing, Just because Romney is Mormon does not mean that he is not christian, after all the real name of the Mormon church is The Church of JESUS CHRIST of Latter-day Saints
I agree, and I can't believe you said (remember Romney is a Morman). Because of that statement we have Obama in the white house destroying our country. It's the Mike Huckabee anti Mormon followers that elevated Obama to his current position. Romney is so far above Huckaee (who is not a real consertative.) Remember Huckabee was listed in Judicial Watch as one of the top ten most corrupt politicians, he made #6: Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR): Governor Huckabee enjoyed a meteoric rise in the polls in December 2007, which prompted a more thorough review of his ethics record. According to The Associated Press: “[Huckabee’s] career has also been colored by 14 ethics complaints and a volley of questions about his integrity, ranging from his management of campaign cash to his use of a nonprofit organization to subsidize his income to his destruction of state computer files on his way out of the governor’s office.” And what was Governor Huckabee’s response to these ethics allegations? Rather than cooperating with investigators, Huckabee sued the state ethics commission twice and attempted to shut the ethics process down.
Don't give me any of that "Romney's Mormonism" before you look at Huckabees record as a Christian politician. Lydia from Arizona
You might want to check into Gary Johnson ( http://www.garyjohnson2012.com ). He's definitely one to watch for the 2012 race.
LOL I love how you ripped on Ron Paul!!!
I'm all for small government and all, but not TOO SMALL!!!
It's ok, just the way it is. Ron Paul can take his small government and Constitution and stick it you know where.
And there's nothing wrong with Romney being a mormon. I'm a moron too and we're good Americans too.
Mitt's not electable right now. His political antennas are so obviously sawed off as to make one wonder if he even cares anymore.
When Obamacare passed, Romney had the chance of his life to contrast it with him signing a similar bill in MA. MA is a state, and a liberal one. The biggest wave amongst GOP voters right now, is states rights. And this will remain true for at least as long as the dems control the federal government. Romney could have deflected a lot of criticism from Tea Partiers and others by being very vocal about how, in order for them to let their states arrange health care as they saw fit, they would have to extend the same privilege to liberal voters in MA. And how he, as governor of a liberal state, despite not agreeing with the bill, was essentially working for the voters of that state etc............
Instead he's fiddling around trying to play up minute differences between his plan and Obama's.
I addition, Romney was for Tarp. That may be on the back burner now, but sure won't be as the primaries get closer. A pro Tarp stand, when voters are out of a job or struggling, while banksters are living the high life on tarp welfare, rightfully is a hanging offense for GOP intenders. No amount of "experience", cute family and nice looking suits can change that. His message is plain and simply out of touch with the time.
"Paul appeals to disenchanted voters from both parties with a simple message: government is the root of all evil. Paul's message makes complete sense for people who look for simple answers to complex problems."
Like in 2002 when RP introduced the Free Housing Market Enhancement Act (legislation that restores a free market in housing by repealing special privileges for housing-related government sponsored enterprises (GSEs)- Fannie and Freddie). When he correctly predicted that the GSE's would produce a housing bubble. What a simple answer to a complex question.
Read the whole statement:
http://www.ronpaul.com/2008-09-26/ron-paul-on-the-housing-bubble-july-2002/
"Paul's message makes complete sense for people who look for simple answers to complex problems."
Really?? Ever hear of Occam's razor???
Ron paul is the only candidate on this list that actually proposes real change rather than the status quo. He's also the only conservative on the entire list, the rest are just neo-con acolytes with VERY liberal foreign interventionist policy's. I say we have a 2012 campaign with REAL, substantive differences between the candidates. That means Ron Paul in 2012.
Anonymous said...
LOL I love how you ripped on Ron Paul!!!
I'm all for small government and all, but not TOO SMALL!!!
It's ok, just the way it is. Ron Paul can take his small government and Constitution and stick it you know where."
Stick the Constitution you know where? Oh, okay. Heaven forbid someone should look to the Constitution to see if our federal government is abusing the powers granted to them through the people of the United States.
"Your tuna sandwich just got 50 cents more expensive at the local diner? It's the government's fault.
No health insurance? It's the government's fault.
Global warming? The answer is less government"
lol
your analysis of Ron Paul was pethetic. You should get your head out of your ass and report an accurate appraisal, not an arrogant, idiotic opinion. thanks!
www.campaignforliberty.com for liberty-minded candidates and we also have liberty minded-candidates running across colorado(town,county,sheriff,senate and house). the only way the gop will win locally/state is by running Liberty-Minded Candidates. In my county ,if they are not Liberty-Minded. they will not win;)If the gop does not see the light soon, then they will alienate themselves,sincerely registered republican Colorado!!!elected officials will be held accountable,if not do not be surprised to see obama/cheney 2012 bring our troops home more of the same big gov gop! NOBIGGOVGOPINMYTEA!!! see ya at conventions!!
When are the Ron Paul fanatics going to give it up? I like a lot of his ideas too, but the man is 75 years old and he'll be 77 in 2012. He's not going to run again! When are you going to move on? In 2020, when he's 85? How about in 2032, when he's 97?
I have read this entire article and everyone’s comments, so I’d like to briefly touch on each:
It is despairing to see all this talk about various republican candidates. Wish everyone would get informed of the issues that have been plaguing America for the past century, and can, as easily as one candidate does - trace them back to our current economic crisis, as well as the greatest assault on civil liberties in the history of the USA. Ron Paul is the only candidate who has defended the Constitution against all those who sought to destroy and ignore it during his (at least) 40 years in Congress, and he gets ignored and side-swiped by the media and its “popular opinion.” Don't you see that polls like these are mere attempts at dividing the Republican party? Why so, so, so, SO many candidates? Why so, so, SO many choices? And why the HELL are they ALL for the same ultimate policy? RON PAUL is the only man that deviates from such policies, and he will prevail - even if the brainwashed in society don't get a clue this time around, his message remains strong in the REVOLUTION! We have one last chance to revolutionize a corrupt, political machine that uses the two-party establishment to control the people. Wake up and get on board, folks!
To the individual that thinks we should stick the constitution up our A**? Are you kidding me? Move out of the freaking country then! You ought to be tried for treason – you and everyone like you!
As for the folks that think Ron Paul is too old? Ron Reagan was 70-78 years old, and to make a correction, Paul is 74! He will be 75 in August, 76 when he gets elected. And you know what? I have met Ron Paul personally, and have seen him speak and interact on SEVERAL occasions – he is as healthy as a buck and younger in spirit than most of the brain-dead, old neoconservative folks just waiting to finish out their retirement, SS, Medicare, and other government benefits that they preached so hard-core against, but then eat up like candy and fork the bill to younger generations. So you older folks are going to die soon…so you are OK with continuous war, continuous welfare states. Why? Because you don’t have to live that way much longer, and many of you are detached from reality, your families, and anything sentimental that makes one wholly human. Thank GOD Ron Paul will run again in 2012 and THANK GOD people support this great man of courage and strength. Shame on anyone who does not vote on principle, but rather, votes on appearance, age, electability (in terms of their ability to rake in enough funds to overthrow a political machine that beats down the independent thinker). RON PAUL 2012!
Finally, the quip about the government being the responsibility of everything? “Tuna sandwich went up $.50? It’s the government’s fault!...” That is very funny, but very true. What a brilliant idea!
Being a mormon is not the same as being a christian. The jesus Christ of the mormon faith has nothing to do with the real Jesus.
I'll take Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Jindal, Jeb Bush, or any reasonably qualified Republican candidate who can win. The mistake I made was sticking doggedly to my favored candidate and getting into friendly fire-fights with the supporters of other good GOP contenders. I'd pull the lever for Sarah, but I think her role is better as a conservative firebrand, rather than party standard bearer. I consider Ron Paul a fringe candidate who is out for himself and who would embarrass the GOP.
I think it's time to get behind a Presidential Hopeful, that can take down the clown in the White House. We need a candidate with edge, and moderate conservativism. Why moderate conservativism? People across the country are increasingly disallusioned by our current administration. However, we need to cross ethnic, age, sex and color barriers. For this diverse group of voters to feel comfortable with a GOP Candidate; the candidate must be charismatic, patriotic and not scream extremism. Obama is a great orator and can incite the crowds into following him without regard to his heavy-handed administration. The GOP's biggest challenge will be finding a candidate, that can justifably call Obama out on his missteps, without appearing overbearing and prejudice. Let's face it people, for the last 18+ months, when anyone challenges Obama or his inadequate admininistration the "Race Card", is the first line of defense among the Democrats. Should the GOP expect anything less on the 2012 campaign trail?
Anonymous said...
Being a mormon is not the same as being a christian. The jesus Christ of the mormon faith has nothing to do with the real Jesus
I am MORMON and let me tell you, being MORMON IS ALL ABOUT JESUS CHRIST. From the name of our church, "Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints", to following the word of God and Jesus Christ in the Old and New Testament,to standing up as a "Follower of Christ" is about as "Christian" as you can get.
Religion has no place in politics; which is why there is "Separation of Church and State". Before you spread your prejudice regarding "Mormonism" at least take the time to research what you gossip as gospel.
Mitt Will be the next president, and you peole that bring up religion, be ashamed of yourself, Obama hates america and is not religious, period
Go Mitt 2012
Funny how people are against health care, but all about Romney. Come on people, Romney created ROMNEYCARE... Do you guys have not memory?? He wanted National healthcare before Obama did. I mean these guys are practically in bed together?
Also this list is pretty bad. My apologies to the author. All of the recent phone polls have been showing Paul with around a 10 point lead on Obama, if the election were today. I also read that there has been a record number of independent and democrats registering as republicans in the last month just so that they can vote for Ron Paul in the primaries. America is starting to wake up.
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